US recession risk
Assessed by an AI model against this signal's rubric. Describes conditions; not a forecast or advice.
NormalStableSahm 0.00, 10y–2y +0.38
US economy grew 3.4% in Q3; recession indicators quiet
Why it's at this level
The advance estimate on 29 Oct showed US GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate in Q3. The real-time Sahm rule indicator is 0.00, far from the 0.5 recession trigger, and the 10y–2y curve is positive at +0.38. October payrolls are the next test.
What this means for you
Recession risk in the US looks low for now. The main risk to growth is the combination of high energy prices and rising interest rates.
Why it matters
A US recession drags world trade, earnings and jobs; it is the single biggest swing factor for the global cycle.
What moves it
Labour market, consumer spending, credit conditions, rates and fiscal policy.
Status at each of the last 8 checks
How it's rated
Alert
Sahm ≥ 0.50, or two consecutive negative GDP quarters, or NBER declares recession.
Watch
Sahm 0.30–0.49, or one negative GDP quarter, or payrolls negative in a release.
Normal
Sahm rule indicator < 0.30 and no negative GDP quarter in the latest two releases.