{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"us-recession","name":"US recession risk","domain":"economy","domain_name":"Economy","status":"normal","trend":"stable","horizon":"acute","tier":"fast","value":"Sahm 0.00, 10y–2y +0.38","value_num":0.0,"summary":"US economy grew 3.4% in Q3; recession indicators quiet","state":"The advance estimate on 29 Oct showed US GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate in Q3. The real-time Sahm rule indicator is 0.00, far from the 0.5 recession trigger, and the 10y–2y curve is positive at +0.38. October payrolls are the next test.","for_you":"Recession risk in the US looks low for now. The main risk to growth is the combination of high energy prices and rising interest rates.","rubric_hit":"Sahm rule indicator < 0.30 and no negative GDP quarter in the latest two releases.","situations":[],"provenance":"metric","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"Axios — U.S. economy races ahead with 3.4% growth in third quarter","url":"https://www.axios.com/2026/10/29/dp-q3-economy-energy","date":"2026-10-29"},{"title":"FRED — Real-time Sahm Rule indicator","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME","date":"2026-09-01"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/us-recession","why":"A US recession drags world trade, earnings and jobs; it is the single biggest swing factor for the global cycle.","drivers":"Labour market, consumer spending, credit conditions, rates and fiscal policy.","rubric":{"alert":"Sahm ≥ 0.50, or two consecutive negative GDP quarters, or NBER declares recession.","watch":"Sahm 0.30–0.49, or one negative GDP quarter, or payrolls negative in a release.","normal":"Sahm rule indicator < 0.30 and no negative GDP quarter in the latest two releases."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","normal",0.0],["2026-10-31T11:43:28Z","normal",0.0],["2026-10-31T11:44:16Z","normal",0.0],["2026-10-31T17:48:45Z","normal",0.0],["2026-10-31T23:53:37Z","normal",0.0],["2026-10-31T23:53:42Z","normal",0.0],["2026-11-01T05:43:22Z","normal",0.0],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","normal",0.0]]}