# US recession risk — NORMAL (stable)
id us-recession · Economy · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T01:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/us-recession

Value: Sahm 0.00, 10y–2y +0.38
Rated on: Sahm rule indicator < 0.30 and no negative GDP quarter in the latest two releases.

US economy grew 3.4% in Q3; recession indicators quiet

Why it's at this level: The advance estimate on 29 Oct showed US GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate in Q3. The real-time Sahm rule indicator is 0.00, far from the 0.5 recession trigger, and the 10y–2y curve is positive at +0.38. October payrolls are the next test.

What this means for you: Recession risk in the US looks low for now. The main risk to growth is the combination of high energy prices and rising interest rates.

Why it matters: A US recession drags world trade, earnings and jobs; it is the single biggest swing factor for the global cycle.
What moves it: Labour market, consumer spending, credit conditions, rates and fiscal policy.

Rubric — Alert: Sahm ≥ 0.50, or two consecutive negative GDP quarters, or NBER declares recession. | Watch: Sahm 0.30–0.49, or one negative GDP quarter, or payrolls negative in a release. | Normal: Sahm rule indicator < 0.30 and no negative GDP quarter in the latest two releases.

Sources:
- Axios — U.S. economy races ahead with 3.4% growth in third quarter (2026-10-29) https://www.axios.com/2026/10/29/dp-q3-economy-energy
- FRED — Real-time Sahm Rule indicator (2026-09-01) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME