Nuclear risk
Assessed by an AI model against this signal's rubric. Describes conditions; not a forecast or advice.
No arms-control treaty since New START lapsed; testing threats unresolved
Why it's at this level
New START expired in February 2026 with no replacement, leaving no US–Russia limits for the first time in decades. Trump has threatened to resume nuclear testing, and on 31 Oct Iran's security chief said Tehran was debating whether to keep its ban on nuclear weapons. No test or alert-level change has been reported.
What this means for you
Nuclear use remains very unlikely, but the guard-rails that made it predictable are weaker than at any time since the 1960s.
Why it matters
Nuclear use anywhere would be a civilisational shock; arms-control treaties are weaker than at any time since the 1960s.
What moves it
Threats in active wars, testing, doctrine changes, arms-control collapse, proliferation.