# Nuclear risk — WATCH (worsening)
id nuclear-risk · Armed Conflict · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T01:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/nuclear-risk

Value: No US–Russia treaty limits
Rated on: Explicit threats, unusual exercises, doctrine changes, or arms-control lapses without replacement.

No arms-control treaty since New START lapsed; testing threats unresolved

Why it's at this level: New START expired in February 2026 with no replacement, leaving no US–Russia limits for the first time in decades. Trump has threatened to resume nuclear testing, and on 31 Oct Iran's security chief said Tehran was debating whether to keep its ban on nuclear weapons. No test or alert-level change has been reported.

What this means for you: Nuclear use remains very unlikely, but the guard-rails that made it predictable are weaker than at any time since the 1960s.

Why it matters: Nuclear use anywhere would be a civilisational shock; arms-control treaties are weaker than at any time since the 1960s.
What moves it: Threats in active wars, testing, doctrine changes, arms-control collapse, proliferation.

Rubric — Alert: A nuclear test, changes in deployment/alert levels, or threatened use in an active conflict. | Watch: Explicit threats, unusual exercises, doctrine changes, or arms-control lapses without replacement. | Normal: No explicit nuclear threats or tests; arms-control dialogue active.

Sources:
- Arms Control Association — Trump, Xi, Putin failing to tackle nuclear threat (2026-10-01) https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2026-10/focus/trump-xi-putin-failing-tackle-nuclear-threat
- Khaleej Times — Iran war live updates, 31 October (2026-10-31) https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/us-israel-iran-saudi-arabia-yemen-war-live-updates-october-31-2026