{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"nuclear-risk","name":"Nuclear risk","domain":"conflict","domain_name":"Armed Conflict","status":"watch","trend":"worsening","horizon":"acute","tier":"fast","value":"No US–Russia treaty limits","value_num":null,"summary":"No arms-control treaty since New START lapsed; testing threats unresolved","state":"New START expired in February 2026 with no replacement, leaving no US–Russia limits for the first time in decades. Trump has threatened to resume nuclear testing, and on 31 Oct Iran's security chief said Tehran was debating whether to keep its ban on nuclear weapons. No test or alert-level change has been reported.","for_you":"Nuclear use remains very unlikely, but the guard-rails that made it predictable are weaker than at any time since the 1960s.","rubric_hit":"Explicit threats, unusual exercises, doctrine changes, or arms-control lapses without replacement.","situations":[],"provenance":"reporting","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"Arms Control Association — Trump, Xi, Putin failing to tackle nuclear threat","url":"https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2026-10/focus/trump-xi-putin-failing-tackle-nuclear-threat","date":"2026-10-01"},{"title":"Khaleej Times — Iran war live updates, 31 October","url":"https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/us-israel-iran-saudi-arabia-yemen-war-live-updates-october-31-2026","date":"2026-10-31"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/nuclear-risk","why":"Nuclear use anywhere would be a civilisational shock; arms-control treaties are weaker than at any time since the 1960s.","drivers":"Threats in active wars, testing, doctrine changes, arms-control collapse, proliferation.","rubric":{"alert":"A nuclear test, changes in deployment/alert levels, or threatened use in an active conflict.","watch":"Explicit threats, unusual exercises, doctrine changes, or arms-control lapses without replacement.","normal":"No explicit nuclear threats or tests; arms-control dialogue active."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","watch",null],["2026-10-31T11:43:28Z","watch",null],["2026-10-31T11:44:16Z","watch",null],["2026-10-31T17:48:45Z","watch",null],["2026-10-31T23:53:37Z","watch",null],["2026-10-31T23:53:42Z","watch",null],["2026-11-01T05:43:22Z","watch",null],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","watch",null]]}