Gulf / US–Iran war
Assessed by an AI model against this signal's rubric. Describes conditions; not a forecast or advice.
Pending
This signal has not been assessed yet. The next scheduled run will rate it.
Part of a wider situation
US–Iran war and Gulf energy shock: War in stalemate with Hormuz largely closed: Brent above $110, TTF above €100, tanker attacks on 29–30 Oct.
Why it matters
Direct hostilities between Iran and the US or Israel threaten Gulf energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz and the wider region.
What moves it
Strikes and retaliation, attacks on shipping and Gulf states, mediation and ceasefire talks, US force posture.
How it's rated
Alert
Active strikes between states, attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure or shipping, or the Strait of Hormuz substantially closed.
Watch
A ceasefire or stalemate with sporadic strikes, or credible threats of renewed strikes.
Normal
No direct state-on-state hostilities; diplomacy active.