# Gulf / US–Iran war — PENDING
id gulf-iran · Armed Conflict · horizon acute · checked — · at this level since — · stale after —
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/gulf-iran

Not assessed yet; the next scheduled run will rate it.

Why it matters: Direct hostilities between Iran and the US or Israel threaten Gulf energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz and the wider region.
What moves it: Strikes and retaliation, attacks on shipping and Gulf states, mediation and ceasefire talks, US force posture.

Rubric — Alert: Active strikes between states, attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure or shipping, or the Strait of Hormuz substantially closed. | Watch: A ceasefire or stalemate with sporadic strikes, or credible threats of renewed strikes. | Normal: No direct state-on-state hostilities; diplomacy active.