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Canary Global risk status

European gas (TTF)

Alert · Energy & Commodities

Assessed by an AI model against this signal's rubric. Describes conditions; not a forecast or advice.

AlertStable€104/MWh

TTF above €100/MWh; EU storage lowest for the time of year on record

Why it's at this level

Dutch TTF gas last traded near €104/MWh (30 Oct), up from about €28 in January, after Qatari LNG deliveries to Europe stopped in May. EU storage was 74.6% full on 24 Oct against 82.9% a year earlier, the lowest for the date since 2011 (IEEFA). Hormuz talks in Doha had produced no reopening as of 31 Oct.

What this means for you

UK and European energy bills are set to rise sharply this winter. A cold winter would add further pressure on supply.

Part of a wider situation

US–Iran war and Gulf energy shock: War in stalemate with Hormuz largely closed: Brent above $110, TTF above €100, tanker attacks on 29–30 Oct.

Why it matters

European gas sets UK and EU power prices and heating bills; Europe has had no cushion since losing Russian pipeline gas.

What moves it

LNG supply, storage levels, weather, Norwegian outages, Middle East LNG routes.

Energy & CommoditiesChecked every runChecked 1 Nov, 11:52 UK. At this level since 31 Oct, 11:26.

Status at each of the last 8 checks

How it's rated

Alert
TTF > €70/MWh, or a major supply cut-off (e.g. Qatar LNG or Norway outage > 1 week).
Watch
TTF €40–70/MWh, or storage > 10 points below seasonal norm.
Normal
TTF < €40/MWh and EU storage at or above seasonal norm.

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