{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"eu-gas","name":"European gas (TTF)","domain":"energy","domain_name":"Energy & Commodities","status":"alert","trend":"stable","horizon":"acute","tier":"fast","value":"€104/MWh","value_num":103.944,"summary":"TTF above €100/MWh; EU storage lowest for the time of year on record","state":"Dutch TTF gas last traded near €104/MWh (30 Oct), up from about €28 in January, after Qatari LNG deliveries to Europe stopped in May. EU storage was 74.6% full on 24 Oct against 82.9% a year earlier, the lowest for the date since 2011 (IEEFA). Hormuz talks in Doha had produced no reopening as of 31 Oct.","for_you":"UK and European energy bills are set to rise sharply this winter. A cold winter would add further pressure on supply.","rubric_hit":"TTF > €70/MWh, or a major supply cut-off (e.g. Qatar LNG or Norway outage > 1 week).","situations":["us-iran-war"],"provenance":"metric","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"Euronews — European natural gas prices soar","url":"https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/27/european-natural-gas-prices-soar-what-it-means-for-your-winter-bills","date":"2026-10-27"},{"title":"Yahoo Finance — Dutch TTF gas futures (TTF=F)","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTF%3DF","date":"2026-10-30"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/eu-gas","why":"European gas sets UK and EU power prices and heating bills; Europe has had no cushion since losing Russian pipeline gas.","drivers":"LNG supply, storage levels, weather, Norwegian outages, Middle East LNG routes.","rubric":{"alert":"TTF > €70/MWh, or a major supply cut-off (e.g. Qatar LNG or Norway outage > 1 week).","watch":"TTF €40–70/MWh, or storage > 10 points below seasonal norm.","normal":"TTF < €40/MWh and EU storage at or above seasonal norm."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","alert",103.944],["2026-10-31T11:43:28Z","alert",103.944],["2026-10-31T11:44:16Z","alert",103.944],["2026-10-31T17:48:45Z","alert",103.944],["2026-10-31T23:53:37Z","alert",103.944],["2026-10-31T23:53:42Z","alert",103.944],["2026-11-01T05:43:22Z","alert",103.944],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","alert",103.944]]}