# European gas (TTF) — ALERT (stable)
id eu-gas · Energy & Commodities · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T01:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/eu-gas

Value: €104/MWh
Rated on: TTF > €70/MWh, or a major supply cut-off (e.g. Qatar LNG or Norway outage > 1 week).
Situation: US–Iran war and Gulf energy shock [us-iran-war]

TTF above €100/MWh; EU storage lowest for the time of year on record

Why it's at this level: Dutch TTF gas last traded near €104/MWh (30 Oct), up from about €28 in January, after Qatari LNG deliveries to Europe stopped in May. EU storage was 74.6% full on 24 Oct against 82.9% a year earlier, the lowest for the date since 2011 (IEEFA). Hormuz talks in Doha had produced no reopening as of 31 Oct.

What this means for you: UK and European energy bills are set to rise sharply this winter. A cold winter would add further pressure on supply.

Why it matters: European gas sets UK and EU power prices and heating bills; Europe has had no cushion since losing Russian pipeline gas.
What moves it: LNG supply, storage levels, weather, Norwegian outages, Middle East LNG routes.

Rubric — Alert: TTF > €70/MWh, or a major supply cut-off (e.g. Qatar LNG or Norway outage > 1 week). | Watch: TTF €40–70/MWh, or storage > 10 points below seasonal norm. | Normal: TTF < €40/MWh and EU storage at or above seasonal norm.

Sources:
- Euronews — European natural gas prices soar (2026-10-27) https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/27/european-natural-gas-prices-soar-what-it-means-for-your-winter-bills
- Yahoo Finance — Dutch TTF gas futures (TTF=F) (2026-10-30) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTF%3DF