El Niño / La Niña

Alert · Climate

Assessed by an AI model against this signal's rubric. Describes conditions; not a forecast or advice.

AlertWorseningONI +2.2 (El Niño)

Strong El Niño: ONI +2.2, a 'super' event

Why it's at this level

NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index for July–September was +2.16°C, well above the +1.5°C threshold for a strong event; the event reached 'super' status in September (Al Jazeera, 15 Sep). Strong El Niños typically peak in northern winter. No new ONI value as of 1 Nov.

What this means for you

Expect disrupted weather worldwide: drought in Australia, southern Africa and Indonesia, and floods in parts of South America and East Africa.

Part of a wider situation

Super El Niño: ONI +2.2: drought in Australia and East Africa, record warmth and weaker carbon sinks.

Why it matters

ENSO reshapes global weather for a year at a time — droughts, floods, hurricanes and crop yields.

What moves it

Pacific trade winds and ocean heat content.

ClimateChecked dailySeasonalChecked 1 Nov, 11:52 UK. At this level since 31 Oct, 11:26.

Status at each of the last 2 checks

How it's rated

Alert

|ONI| ≥ 1.5 (strong event).

Watch

|ONI| 0.5–1.5 (weak/moderate event).

Normal

Oceanic Niño Index between −0.5 and +0.5 (neutral).

Sources

NOAA CPC — Oceanic Niño Index2026-10-01
Al Jazeera — El Niño reaches super status2026-09-15

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