{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"enso","name":"El Niño / La Niña","domain":"climate","domain_name":"Climate","status":"alert","trend":"worsening","horizon":"seasonal","tier":"daily","value":"ONI +2.2 (El Niño)","value_num":2.16,"summary":"Strong El Niño: ONI +2.2, a 'super' event","state":"NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index for July–September was +2.16°C, well above the +1.5°C threshold for a strong event; the event reached 'super' status in September (Al Jazeera, 15 Sep). Strong El Niños typically peak in northern winter. No new ONI value as of 1 Nov.","for_you":"Expect disrupted weather worldwide: drought in Australia, southern Africa and Indonesia, and floods in parts of South America and East Africa.","rubric_hit":"|ONI| ≥ 1.5 (strong event).","situations":["super-el-nino"],"provenance":"metric","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T23:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"NOAA CPC — Oceanic Niño Index","url":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php","date":"2026-10-01"},{"title":"Al Jazeera — El Niño reaches super status","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/15/el-nino-reaches-super-status-where-will-it-bring-rain-drought-and-heat","date":"2026-09-15"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/enso","why":"ENSO reshapes global weather for a year at a time — droughts, floods, hurricanes and crop yields.","drivers":"Pacific trade winds and ocean heat content.","rubric":{"alert":"|ONI| ≥ 1.5 (strong event).","watch":"|ONI| 0.5–1.5 (weak/moderate event).","normal":"Oceanic Niño Index between −0.5 and +0.5 (neutral)."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","alert",2.16],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","alert",2.16]]}