# El Niño / La Niña — ALERT (worsening)
id enso · Climate · horizon seasonal · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T23:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/enso

Value: ONI +2.2 (El Niño)
Rated on: |ONI| ≥ 1.5 (strong event).
Situation: Super El Niño [super-el-nino]

Strong El Niño: ONI +2.2, a 'super' event

Why it's at this level: NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index for July–September was +2.16°C, well above the +1.5°C threshold for a strong event; the event reached 'super' status in September (Al Jazeera, 15 Sep). Strong El Niños typically peak in northern winter. No new ONI value as of 1 Nov.

What this means for you: Expect disrupted weather worldwide: drought in Australia, southern Africa and Indonesia, and floods in parts of South America and East Africa.

Why it matters: ENSO reshapes global weather for a year at a time — droughts, floods, hurricanes and crop yields.
What moves it: Pacific trade winds and ocean heat content.

Rubric — Alert: |ONI| ≥ 1.5 (strong event). | Watch: |ONI| 0.5–1.5 (weak/moderate event). | Normal: Oceanic Niño Index between −0.5 and +0.5 (neutral).

Sources:
- NOAA CPC — Oceanic Niño Index (2026-10-01) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
- Al Jazeera — El Niño reaches super status (2026-09-15) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/15/el-nino-reaches-super-status-where-will-it-bring-rain-drought-and-heat