Bond market volatility
Assessed by an AI model against this signal's rubric. Describes conditions; not a forecast or advice.
Treasury volatility at the Watch line as yields hover near 5%
Why it's at this level
The MOVE index of Treasury volatility stood at 100 on 30 Oct, right on the Watch threshold, with the US 10-year yield at 4.93% after touching about 5.2% in mid-October. The Fed held on 28 Oct after a September hike, and markets price a December hike. No trading since 30 Oct.
What this means for you
Long-term borrowing costs, including US mortgage rates, are elevated and moving more than usual. This feeds through to global bond markets, including UK gilts.
Part of a wider situation
Energy shock feeding inflation: US CPI at 4.0% on the oil shock; central banks squeezed; a Bank of England rise expected on 5 Nov.
Why it matters
US Treasuries price almost every asset on earth; when the 'risk-free' market becomes volatile, funding and collateral chains strain.
What moves it
Inflation data, Fed path, deficits and auction demand, foreign holder flows, liquidity.