{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"bond-volatility","name":"Bond market volatility","domain":"markets","domain_name":"Markets","status":"watch","trend":"stable","horizon":"acute","tier":"fast","value":"MOVE 100, 10y 4.93%","value_num":100.198,"summary":"Treasury volatility at the Watch line as yields hover near 5%","state":"The MOVE index of Treasury volatility stood at 100 on 30 Oct, right on the Watch threshold, with the US 10-year yield at 4.93% after touching about 5.2% in mid-October. The Fed held on 28 Oct after a September hike, and markets price a December hike. No trading since 30 Oct.","for_you":"Long-term borrowing costs, including US mortgage rates, are elevated and moving more than usual. This feeds through to global bond markets, including UK gilts.","rubric_hit":"MOVE 100–140, or US 10y moved ≥ 40bp in a month, or weak auctions flagged.","situations":["energy-inflation"],"provenance":"metric","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"Yahoo Finance — ICE BofA MOVE Index","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EMOVE","date":"2026-10-30"},{"title":"FRED — 10-Year Treasury yield (DGS10)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","date":"2026-10-29"},{"title":"investingLive — FOMC decision 28 Oct: rates left unchanged","url":"https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fomc-decision-oct-28/","date":"2026-10-28"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/bond-volatility","why":"US Treasuries price almost every asset on earth; when the 'risk-free' market becomes volatile, funding and collateral chains strain.","drivers":"Inflation data, Fed path, deficits and auction demand, foreign holder flows, liquidity.","rubric":{"alert":"MOVE > 140, or disorderly Treasury trading (failed/tailed auctions with Fed action, emergency buybacks).","watch":"MOVE 100–140, or US 10y moved ≥ 40bp in a month, or weak auctions flagged.","normal":"MOVE index < 100 and US 10y moved < 40bp over the past month."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","watch",100.198],["2026-10-31T11:43:28Z","watch",100.198],["2026-10-31T11:44:16Z","watch",100.198],["2026-10-31T17:48:45Z","watch",100.198],["2026-10-31T23:53:37Z","watch",100.198],["2026-10-31T23:53:42Z","watch",100.198],["2026-11-01T05:43:22Z","watch",100.198],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","watch",100.198]]}