# Bond market volatility — WATCH (stable)
id bond-volatility · Markets · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T01:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/bond-volatility

Value: MOVE 100, 10y 4.93%
Rated on: MOVE 100–140, or US 10y moved ≥ 40bp in a month, or weak auctions flagged.
Situation: Energy shock feeding inflation [energy-inflation]

Treasury volatility at the Watch line as yields hover near 5%

Why it's at this level: The MOVE index of Treasury volatility stood at 100 on 30 Oct, right on the Watch threshold, with the US 10-year yield at 4.93% after touching about 5.2% in mid-October. The Fed held on 28 Oct after a September hike, and markets price a December hike. No trading since 30 Oct.

What this means for you: Long-term borrowing costs, including US mortgage rates, are elevated and moving more than usual. This feeds through to global bond markets, including UK gilts.

Why it matters: US Treasuries price almost every asset on earth; when the 'risk-free' market becomes volatile, funding and collateral chains strain.
What moves it: Inflation data, Fed path, deficits and auction demand, foreign holder flows, liquidity.

Rubric — Alert: MOVE > 140, or disorderly Treasury trading (failed/tailed auctions with Fed action, emergency buybacks). | Watch: MOVE 100–140, or US 10y moved ≥ 40bp in a month, or weak auctions flagged. | Normal: MOVE index < 100 and US 10y moved < 40bp over the past month.

Sources:
- Yahoo Finance — ICE BofA MOVE Index (2026-10-30) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EMOVE
- FRED — 10-Year Treasury yield (DGS10) (2026-10-29) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
- investingLive — FOMC decision 28 Oct: rates left unchanged (2026-10-28) https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fomc-decision-oct-28/