Fertiliser supply
Assessed by an AI model against this signal's rubric. Describes conditions; not a forecast or advice.
Pending
This signal has not been assessed yet. The next scheduled run will rate it.
Why it matters
Fertiliser prices lead food prices by months; much of the world's urea and ammonia is exported from Russia, the Gulf and China.
What moves it
Gas prices, Gulf shipping, export bans and quotas, sanctions, planting seasons.
How it's rated
Alert
Urea up more than 60% in three months, several major exporters restricting at once, or a key export route closed.
Watch
Urea up more than 30% in three months, or a major exporter restricts exports.
Normal
Urea and ammonia prices within their normal range; no major export restrictions.