# Fertiliser supply — PENDING
id fertiliser · Energy & Commodities · horizon acute · checked — · at this level since — · stale after —
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/fertiliser

Not assessed yet; the next scheduled run will rate it.

Why it matters: Fertiliser prices lead food prices by months; much of the world's urea and ammonia is exported from Russia, the Gulf and China.
What moves it: Gas prices, Gulf shipping, export bans and quotas, sanctions, planting seasons.

Rubric — Alert: Urea up more than 60% in three months, several major exporters restricting at once, or a key export route closed. | Watch: Urea up more than 30% in three months, or a major exporter restricts exports. | Normal: Urea and ammonia prices within their normal range; no major export restrictions.