Drought

Watch · Weather & Hazards

Assessed by an AI model against this signal's rubric. Describes conditions; not a forecast or advice.

WatchWorseningE Africa, S Africa, Australia wheat hit

Super El Niño cuts Australian wheat and dries East Africa

Why it's at this level

FEWS NET (6 Oct) flags high concern for drought in Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan and southern Africa. Australia's wheat crop is forecast to fall 14–17%, India's rice 4.6%, and Pakistan's monsoon crops are below average. Global grain output is still projected as the second-largest on record. No new data as of 1 Nov.

What this means for you

Drought in exporting regions can add to food price pressures over the next year.

Part of a wider situation

Super El Niño: ONI +2.2: drought in Australia and East Africa, record warmth and weaker carbon sinks.

Why it matters

Drought slowly destroys harvests, hydropower and river shipping, and drives famine and migration.

What moves it

Rainfall deficits, heat, ENSO, groundwater depletion.

Weather & HazardsChecked dailyChecked 1 Nov, 11:52 UK. At this level since 31 Oct, 11:26.

Status at each of the last 2 checks

How it's rated

Alert

Drought driving famine conditions, a major exporter's harvest failure, or monsoon failure across a major breadbasket.

Watch

Severe drought in a major crop region, a major river at record low, or a monsoon running more than 20% below normal.

Normal

No major breadbasket in severe drought.

Sources

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