{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"drought","name":"Drought","domain":"hazards","domain_name":"Weather & Hazards","status":"watch","trend":"worsening","horizon":"acute","tier":"daily","value":"E Africa, S Africa, Australia wheat hit","value_num":null,"summary":"Super El Niño cuts Australian wheat and dries East Africa","state":"FEWS NET (6 Oct) flags high concern for drought in Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan and southern Africa. Australia's wheat crop is forecast to fall 14–17%, India's rice 4.6%, and Pakistan's monsoon crops are below average. Global grain output is still projected as the second-largest on record. No new data as of 1 Nov.","for_you":"Drought in exporting regions can add to food price pressures over the next year.","rubric_hit":"Severe drought in a major crop region, a major river at record low, or a monsoon running more than 20% below normal.","situations":["super-el-nino"],"provenance":"reporting","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T23:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"FEWS NET — 2026–2027 El Niño food security impacts","url":"https://fews.net/global/special-report/october-2026","date":"2026-10-06"},{"title":"EC Joint Research Centre — El Niño weather extremes worsen food security","url":"https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/el-nino-weather-extremes-worsen-food-security-east-africa-and-central-america-and-threaten-next-2026-10-07_en","date":"2026-10-07"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/drought","why":"Drought slowly destroys harvests, hydropower and river shipping, and drives famine and migration.","drivers":"Rainfall deficits, heat, ENSO, groundwater depletion.","rubric":{"alert":"Drought driving famine conditions, a major exporter's harvest failure, or monsoon failure across a major breadbasket.","watch":"Severe drought in a major crop region, a major river at record low, or a monsoon running more than 20% below normal.","normal":"No major breadbasket in severe drought."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","watch",null],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","watch",null]]}