# Canary — all signals
as_of 2026-11-01T11:52Z · next run ~17:40 UK · stale after 2026-11-02T01:52Z (36h for daily-tier signals)
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; attention levels, not forecasts or advice. CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com

status: ALERT acute/material risk now · WATCH elevated · NORMAL background · PENDING not yet assessed. (c)=chronic, (s)=seasonal horizon. Detail: /s/{id}.md

| id | status | trend | value | summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| sovereign-debt | ALERT | stable | OAT–Bund ~159bp (30 Oct) | French borrowing costs spike: OAT–Bund spread near 160bp |
| oil | ALERT | worsening | $113.4, 1m +11% | Brent above $110 as Hormuz stays largely closed |
| eu-gas | ALERT | stable | €104/MWh | TTF above €100/MWh; EU storage lowest for the time of year on record |
| chokepoints | ALERT | worsening | Hormuz: single-digit transits/day | Tanker attacks near Hormuz on 29–30 Oct; Red Sea route still contested |
| freight | ALERT | improving | WCI $4,429/FEU (29 Oct) | Container rates above $4,400/FEU despite a 3% weekly fall |
| food-prices | ALERT | worsening | FAO index 136.0 (Sep) | FAO food index at 136, up 5.8% on a year |
| russia-ukraine | ALERT | worsening | Full-scale war; winter strike campaign | Russia launched 433 drones overnight on 1 Nov; Kyiv under emergency power cuts |
| middle-east | ALERT | stable | US–Iran war since 28 Feb | US–Iran war in tense stalemate; Qatari mediators back in Tehran |
| sudan | ALERT | worsening | Drone war; ~14m displaced | Record drone attacks on civilians in October; army rejects talks |
| sahel | ALERT | stable | JNIM fuel blockade of Bamako | JNIM fuel blockade on Bamako persists; insurgency pressing toward Guinea |
| other-cyclones | ALERT | worsening | GDACS red: Cyclone Murasu (India) | GDACS red alert as Cyclone Murasu heads for Andhra Pradesh landfall on 3 Nov |
| global-temp | ALERT (c) | stable | +1.74°C vs pre-industrial | Global surface temperature about 1.7°C above pre-industrial |
| enso | ALERT (s) | worsening | ONI +2.2 (El Niño) | Strong El Niño: ONI +2.2, a 'super' event |
| ebola | ALERT | worsening | 10,274 cases (28 Oct) | Over 10,000 Ebola cases in DR Congo; imported cases in Kenya and Nigeria |
| uk-energy-cap | ALERT | worsening | £1,723 now; Jan forecast +27% | Energy price cap forecast to rise about 25% in January |
| uk-threat-level | ALERT | stable | Threat level: Severe | UK terrorism threat level raised to Severe: an attack is highly likely |
| bond-volatility | WATCH | stable | MOVE 100, 10y 4.93% | Treasury volatility at the Watch line as yields hover near 5% |
| us-inflation | WATCH | worsening | CPI 4.0% y/y | US CPI at 4.0%, pushed up by the oil shock |
| central-banks | WATCH | worsening | BoE decision 5 Nov; Fed 3.75–4% | Central banks caught between energy-driven inflation and slowing growth |
| critical-minerals | WATCH | worsening | China rare-earth pause ends 10 Nov | China's rare-earth export pause expires 10 Nov; helium squeeze persists |
| russia-nato | WATCH | worsening | Rising incidents on eastern flank | Drone ship sinkings off Bulgaria and airspace violations on NATO's flank |
| iran-nuclear | WATCH | worsening | No IAEA access | No IAEA access amid war; talks focus on inspections as strike plans reported |
| korea | WATCH | stable | 17 launches in 2026 | North Korea fires about 10 ballistic missiles amid DMZ landmine row |
| trade-war | WATCH | worsening | US effective tariff ~7% | US tariffs reset under Section 301; new Russia-linked tariff powers signed |
| sanctions | WATCH | stable | US blockade of Iran; Graham Act in force | US blockade of Iran and new secondary-sanction powers on Russia |
| drc-east | WATCH | stable | Kivu clashes; no city changed hands | Fighting persists in the Kivus; US sanctions Rwanda's defence ministry |
| myanmar | WATCH | stable | Civil war; no major city changed hands | Civil war grinds on; junta relies on air strikes after failed Rakhine offensive |
| india-pakistan | WATCH | stable | LoC tension, no strikes | Border shootings and Line of Control firing keep tensions elevated |
| nuclear-risk | WATCH | worsening | No US–Russia treaty limits | No arms-control treaty since New START lapsed; testing threats unresolved |
| drought | WATCH | worsening | E Africa, S Africa, Australia wheat hit | Super El Niño cuts Australian wheat and dries East Africa |
| sea-ice | WATCH (c) | stable | Arctic -1.73, Antarctic -1.62M km² | Both poles well below normal sea-ice extent, but not at record lows |
| co2 | WATCH (c) | worsening | 427.2 ppm, +2.00/yr | CO₂ growth reaches 2 ppm a year as El Niño weakens carbon sinks |
| who-emergencies | WATCH | stable | 1 PHEIC (Ebola) | Ebola PHEIC in effect since May |
| mpox | WATCH | worsening | Clade I local spread in US | Clade I mpox now spreading locally in the US |
| measles | WATCH | worsening | US 4,852 cases (29 Oct) | US measles cases at 4,852 in 2026, the most since elimination |
| cholera-dengue | WATCH | worsening | Cholera in DRC; record dengue seasons | Cholera spikes in DR Congo; record dengue in Florida and Bangladesh |
| cyber | WATCH | stable | US hospital systems disrupted | Ransomware claims up 26% in October; US hospital systems disrupted |
| cables-gnss | WATCH | stable | Asia cable faults; Gulf/Baltic GNSS jamming | Asian subsea cable cuts and widespread GPS jamming |
| semiconductors | WATCH | worsening | Helium shortage; rare-earth deadline 10 Nov | Helium shortage from the Gulf war strains chipmakers |
| ai-governance | WATCH | worsening | EU AI Act enforcement under way | EU opens first AI Act enforcement after AI-agent breaches |
| famine | WATCH | worsening | Risk-of-famine alerts: Somalia, Sudan | Famine confirmed in Gaza and Sudan in 2025; El Niño raises new risks in East Africa |
| civil-unrest | WATCH | worsening | France, Germany, Spain protests | Mass social protests in France for a third weekend, spreading to Germany |
| uk-rates | WATCH | worsening | CPI 3.5% (Sep); BoE meets 5 Nov | UK CPI 3.5% and a Bank of England rate rise expected on 5 Nov |
| gilts | WATCH | improving | 10y 5.29% (30 Oct) | Gilt yields ease after the Budget but stay near 19-year highs |
| uk-disruption | WATCH | worsening | Doctors' strikes 14–19 Nov | Resident doctors strike 14–19 Nov; consultants plan two days |
| equity-stress | NORMAL | stable | VIX 19.4, S&P -3.0% | US stocks near highs and volatility contained despite the energy shock |
| ftse | NORMAL | stable | 10,730, -1.7% from high | FTSE 100 within 2% of its high, supported by energy and mining shares |
| credit-spreads | NORMAL | stable | HY OAS 3.26% | High-yield spreads tight at 3.3% — no sign of a credit crunch |
| dollar | NORMAL | stable | DXY 102.0, 3m +2.1% | Dollar index steady around 102 |
| banking-stress | NORMAL | stable | STLFSI -0.58 | Financial stress index below zero; 2026 bank failures have all been small |
| gold | NORMAL | improving | $3,899, 3m -6.1% | Gold off its highs at about $3,900 as real yields rise |
| crypto | NORMAL | stable | BTC $77,785, -10% from high | Bitcoin 10% below its high; no stablecoin or exchange stress reported |
| us-recession | NORMAL | stable | Sahm 0.00, 10y–2y +0.38 | US economy grew 3.4% in Q3; recession indicators quiet |
| euro-growth | NORMAL | worsening | Q3 GDP +0.4% q/q | Euro area grew 0.4% in Q3, but France contracted and October PMIs slowed |
| china-economy | NORMAL | improving | Q3 GDP +4.5%; Oct NBS PMI 49.3 | China's factory PMI slipped to 49.3 in October after 4.5% Q3 growth |
| global-pmi | NORMAL | improving | Sep composite: joint-highest since 2021 | Global PMI strong in September, but October flashes and China's PMI softened |
| us-china | NORMAL | stable | No major PLA exercise since Dec 2025 | Routine PLA activity; leaders' dialogue continues ahead of APEC |
| political-instability | NORMAL | worsening | No G20 government collapse (1 Nov) | No G20 government has fallen this month; France's budget fight is the one to watch |
| atlantic-cyclones | NORMAL | stable | No active systems | No Atlantic storms; none expected in the next 7 days |
| heat | NORMAL | stable | No major heatwave warnings (1 Nov) | October heat records set earlier in the month; no major heatwave now |
| wildfires | NORMAL | stable | GDACS: no orange/red | No major fires now; Southern California evacuations in mid-October |
| floods | NORMAL | worsening | GDACS: no orange/red | Regional floods in Argentina and Haiti; no GDACS orange or red alerts |
| earthquakes | NORMAL | stable | Max M6.4, 4× M6+ (7d) | Largest quake this week M6.4; no high-impact alerts |
| volcanic | NORMAL | stable | No red aviation codes on major routes | No eruptions disrupting major air routes |
| space-weather | NORMAL | improving | G2 S0 R0 | Geomagnetic storm eased to quiet levels; no radiation or radio storms |
| coral-bleaching | NORMAL (c) | worsening | No global event since June | Fourth global bleaching event ended in June; El Niño threatens a fifth |
| h5n1 | NORMAL | stable | No human-to-human spread | One human H5N1 case reported in the past month; no human spread |
| novel-outbreaks | NORMAL | stable | No unexplained clusters | No unexplained clusters spreading; one isolated lab-linked death in Russia |
| outages | NORMAL | stable | No major outages | No major multi-hour cloud outages in the past 48 hours |
| displacement | NORMAL | worsening | No new 500k+ event (1 Nov) | No new mass displacement event this month; global total above 120 million |
| uk-weather | NORMAL | improving | No warnings in force (1 Nov) | No Met Office weather warnings in force |
| nhs-pressure | NORMAL | worsening | Flu low, RSV at baseline (wk 43) | Flu, COVID and RSV at low or baseline levels; flu usually rises in November |
| funding-stress | PENDING |  |  |  |
| private-credit | PENDING |  |  |  |
| yen-carry | PENDING |  |  |  |
| jobless-claims | PENDING |  |  |  |
| em-stress | PENDING |  |  |  |
| fertiliser | PENDING |  |  |  |
| nuclear-plants | PENDING |  |  |  |
| hybrid-threats | PENDING |  |  |  |
| gulf-iran | PENDING |  |  |  |
| other-conflicts | PENDING |  |  |  |
| cold-storms | PENDING |  |  |  |
| respiratory | PENDING |  |  |  |
| medicine-shortages | PENDING |  |  |  |
| exploited-vulns | PENDING |  |  |  |
| aid-funding | PENDING |  |  |  |
| uk-supply-margins | PENDING |  |  |  |
| uk-floods | PENDING |  |  |  |