Yen & carry trade
Assessed by an AI model against this signal's rubric. Describes conditions; not a forecast or advice.
Pending
This signal has not been assessed yet. The next scheduled run will rate it.
Why it matters
Cheap yen borrowing funds positions worldwide; a sharp yen rally forces those trades to unwind, as in the global sell-off of August 2024.
What moves it
Bank of Japan policy, the US–Japan rate gap, JGB yields, currency intervention, risk appetite.
How it's rated
Alert
A move of more than 5% in a week or 10% in a month, with stress spreading to other markets.
Watch
A 3–5% move in a week, a 6–10% move in a month, or Japanese currency intervention.
Normal
The yen moves less than 3% against the dollar in a week and less than 6% in a month.