# US inflation — WATCH (worsening)
id us-inflation · Economy · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T23:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/us-inflation

Value: CPI 4.0% y/y
Rated on: CPI 3.0–4.5%, or rising for 3 consecutive months.
Situation: Energy shock feeding inflation [energy-inflation]

US CPI at 4.0%, pushed up by the oil shock

Why it's at this level: Headline CPI rose 4.0% in the year to September, up from 3.7% in August, as energy prices fed through, within the 3–4.5% Watch band. The Fed raised rates in September and held on 28 Oct, with markets pricing another hike in December. October CPI is due mid-November.

What this means for you: Higher US inflation keeps global interest rates elevated, which affects borrowing costs well beyond the US.

Why it matters: Inflation sets Fed policy and thus global borrowing costs; a resurgence would keep rates high for everyone.
What moves it: Energy, tariffs, wages, housing costs, supply chains.

Rubric — Alert: CPI > 4.5%. | Watch: CPI 3.0–4.5%, or rising for 3 consecutive months. | Normal: Headline CPI y/y < 3.0%.

Sources:
- FRED — CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCSL) (2026-09-01) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
- investingLive — FOMC decision 28 Oct (2026-10-28) https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fomc-decision-oct-28/