{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"us-inflation","name":"US inflation","domain":"economy","domain_name":"Economy","status":"watch","trend":"worsening","horizon":"acute","tier":"daily","value":"CPI 4.0% y/y","value_num":4.02,"summary":"US CPI at 4.0%, pushed up by the oil shock","state":"Headline CPI rose 4.0% in the year to September, up from 3.7% in August, as energy prices fed through, within the 3–4.5% Watch band. The Fed raised rates in September and held on 28 Oct, with markets pricing another hike in December. October CPI is due mid-November.","for_you":"Higher US inflation keeps global interest rates elevated, which affects borrowing costs well beyond the US.","rubric_hit":"CPI 3.0–4.5%, or rising for 3 consecutive months.","situations":["energy-inflation"],"provenance":"metric","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T23:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"FRED — CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCSL)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL","date":"2026-09-01"},{"title":"investingLive — FOMC decision 28 Oct","url":"https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fomc-decision-oct-28/","date":"2026-10-28"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/us-inflation","why":"Inflation sets Fed policy and thus global borrowing costs; a resurgence would keep rates high for everyone.","drivers":"Energy, tariffs, wages, housing costs, supply chains.","rubric":{"alert":"CPI > 4.5%.","watch":"CPI 3.0–4.5%, or rising for 3 consecutive months.","normal":"Headline CPI y/y < 3.0%."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","watch",4.02],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","watch",4.02]]}