# US–China / Taiwan — NORMAL (stable)
id us-china · Geopolitics · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T01:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/us-china

Value: No major PLA exercise since Dec 2025
Rated on: Managed relations; dialogue channels open; routine PLA activity.

Routine PLA activity; leaders' dialogue continues ahead of APEC

Why it's at this level: Beijing has held no large-scale exercise around Taiwan since December 2025; the Liaoning carrier group drilled in the Philippine Sea on 14–15 Oct before heading to the South China Sea (USNI). Taiwan says it is watching for larger drills as the season peaks. No new exercise had been reported as of 1 Nov.

What this means for you: No acute Taiwan Strait crisis is under way. Watch for a sudden 'snap' exercise, which Beijing used in December 2025.

Why it matters: The world's two largest economies; a Taiwan crisis would halt most advanced chip supply and risk great-power war.
What moves it: PLA exercises, tariffs and tech controls, diplomacy, Taiwan politics, South China Sea incidents.

Rubric — Alert: Blockade or 'quarantine' of Taiwan, military clash, or severed diplomatic channels. | Watch: Large-scale PLA exercises around Taiwan, major new sanctions/controls, or a naval/air incident. | Normal: Managed relations; dialogue channels open; routine PLA activity.

Sources:
- USNI News — Chinese carrier strike group heads to South China Sea (2026-10-14) https://news.usni.org/2026/10/14/chinese-carrier-strike-group-drills-in-the-philippine-sea
- Focus Taiwan — Taiwan watching for large-scale PLA drills (2026-10-15) https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202610150010