{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"us-china","name":"US–China / Taiwan","domain":"geopolitics","domain_name":"Geopolitics","status":"normal","trend":"stable","horizon":"acute","tier":"fast","value":"No major PLA exercise since Dec 2025","value_num":null,"summary":"Routine PLA activity; leaders' dialogue continues ahead of APEC","state":"Beijing has held no large-scale exercise around Taiwan since December 2025; the Liaoning carrier group drilled in the Philippine Sea on 14–15 Oct before heading to the South China Sea (USNI). Taiwan says it is watching for larger drills as the season peaks. No new exercise had been reported as of 1 Nov.","for_you":"No acute Taiwan Strait crisis is under way. Watch for a sudden 'snap' exercise, which Beijing used in December 2025.","rubric_hit":"Managed relations; dialogue channels open; routine PLA activity.","situations":[],"provenance":"reporting","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"USNI News — Chinese carrier strike group heads to South China Sea","url":"https://news.usni.org/2026/10/14/chinese-carrier-strike-group-drills-in-the-philippine-sea","date":"2026-10-14"},{"title":"Focus Taiwan — Taiwan watching for large-scale PLA drills","url":"https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202610150010","date":"2026-10-15"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/us-china","why":"The world's two largest economies; a Taiwan crisis would halt most advanced chip supply and risk great-power war.","drivers":"PLA exercises, tariffs and tech controls, diplomacy, Taiwan politics, South China Sea incidents.","rubric":{"alert":"Blockade or 'quarantine' of Taiwan, military clash, or severed diplomatic channels.","watch":"Large-scale PLA exercises around Taiwan, major new sanctions/controls, or a naval/air incident.","normal":"Managed relations; dialogue channels open; routine PLA activity."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","normal",null],["2026-10-31T11:43:28Z","normal",null],["2026-10-31T11:44:16Z","normal",null],["2026-10-31T17:48:45Z","normal",null],["2026-10-31T23:53:37Z","normal",null],["2026-10-31T23:53:42Z","normal",null],["2026-11-01T05:43:22Z","normal",null],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","normal",null]]}