{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"uk-energy-cap","name":"UK energy price cap","domain":"uk","domain_name":"UK Watch","status":"alert","trend":"worsening","horizon":"acute","tier":"daily","value":"£1,723 now; Jan forecast +27%","value_num":1723,"summary":"Energy price cap forecast to rise about 25% in January","state":"The Ofgem cap for October to December is £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel household. Uswitch's average of British Gas, EDF and E.ON forecasts (updated 30 Oct) points to a 27% rise in January 2027, above the 20% Alert line, driven by the wholesale gas surge. Ofgem announces the January cap by 25 Nov.","for_you":"Household energy bills are likely to rise sharply from 1 January. Ofgem and Citizens Advice publish guidance on support if you're struggling to pay.","rubric_hit":"Cap > £2,200, or forecast rise ≥ 20%.","situations":["us-iran-war"],"provenance":"reporting","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T23:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"Uswitch — Energy price cap January 2027 latest predictions","url":"https://www.uswitch.com/gas-electricity/news/energy-price-cap-january-2027-latest-predictions-and-news/","date":"2026-10-30"},{"title":"Energy Plus — Ofgem January 2027 price cap forecast","url":"https://www.energyplus.co.uk/price-cap/ofgem-january-2027-price-cap-forecast-uk","date":"2026-10-30"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/uk-energy-cap","why":"The Ofgem cap sets bills for most UK households — a direct cost-of-living signal.","drivers":"Wholesale gas and power prices, network costs, policy levies.","rubric":{"alert":"Cap > £2,200, or forecast rise ≥ 20%.","watch":"Cap £1,700–2,200, or forecast rise ≥ 5%.","normal":"Typical dual-fuel cap < £1,700/yr and next forecast change < +5%."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","alert",null],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","alert",1723]]}