# Trade war & tariffs — WATCH (worsening)
id trade-war · Geopolitics · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T01:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/trade-war

Value: US effective tariff ~7%
Rated on: New major tariffs announced or threatened between large economies.

US tariffs reset under Section 301; new Russia-linked tariff powers signed

Why it's at this level: After the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs on 20 Feb, the US moved to 10–12.5% Section 301 tariffs on 60 economies from 24 Jul; the average effective rate was 7.1% in August (Yale Budget Lab). China's pause on some rare-earth export controls expires on 10 Nov with no renewal announced, a possible new flashpoint.

What this means for you: Tariffs are lower than in 2025 but policy remains unpredictable, and new threats could quickly change trade costs.

Why it matters: Tariffs raise prices, reroute supply chains and slow growth; escalation cycles hurt export-heavy economies like the UK's partners.
What moves it: US tariff policy, retaliation, court rulings, trade deals, WTO disputes.

Rubric — Alert: Broad new tariffs in force with retaliation under way, or US average effective tariff rising sharply. | Watch: New major tariffs announced or threatened between large economies. | Normal: Tariff regime stable; no new major measures in the past two weeks.

Sources:
- Penn Wharton Budget Model — Effective tariff rates, updated 14 Oct (2026-10-14) https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-10-14-effective-tariff-rates-and-revenues-updated-october-14-2026/
- Technology.org — China's rare-earth export pause: what ends on 10 November (2026-10-19) https://www.technology.org/2026/10/19/china-rare-earth-export-pause-november-10/