{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"trade-war","name":"Trade war & tariffs","domain":"geopolitics","domain_name":"Geopolitics","status":"watch","trend":"worsening","horizon":"acute","tier":"fast","value":"US effective tariff ~7%","value_num":null,"summary":"US tariffs reset under Section 301; new Russia-linked tariff powers signed","state":"After the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs on 20 Feb, the US moved to 10–12.5% Section 301 tariffs on 60 economies from 24 Jul; the average effective rate was 7.1% in August (Yale Budget Lab). China's pause on some rare-earth export controls expires on 10 Nov with no renewal announced, a possible new flashpoint.","for_you":"Tariffs are lower than in 2025 but policy remains unpredictable, and new threats could quickly change trade costs.","rubric_hit":"New major tariffs announced or threatened between large economies.","situations":[],"provenance":"reporting","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"Penn Wharton Budget Model — Effective tariff rates, updated 14 Oct","url":"https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-10-14-effective-tariff-rates-and-revenues-updated-october-14-2026/","date":"2026-10-14"},{"title":"Technology.org — China's rare-earth export pause: what ends on 10 November","url":"https://www.technology.org/2026/10/19/china-rare-earth-export-pause-november-10/","date":"2026-10-19"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/trade-war","why":"Tariffs raise prices, reroute supply chains and slow growth; escalation cycles hurt export-heavy economies like the UK's partners.","drivers":"US tariff policy, retaliation, court rulings, trade deals, WTO disputes.","rubric":{"alert":"Broad new tariffs in force with retaliation under way, or US average effective tariff rising sharply.","watch":"New major tariffs announced or threatened between large economies.","normal":"Tariff regime stable; no new major measures in the past two weeks."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","watch",null],["2026-10-31T11:43:28Z","watch",null],["2026-10-31T11:44:16Z","watch",null],["2026-10-31T17:48:45Z","watch",null],["2026-10-31T23:53:37Z","watch",null],["2026-10-31T23:53:42Z","watch",null],["2026-11-01T05:43:22Z","watch",null],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","watch",null]]}