{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"sovereign-debt","name":"Sovereign debt stress","domain":"economy","domain_name":"Economy","status":"alert","trend":"stable","horizon":"acute","tier":"daily","value":"OAT–Bund ~159bp (30 Oct)","value_num":159,"summary":"French borrowing costs spike: OAT–Bund spread near 160bp","state":"France's 10-year spread over German Bunds was about 159bp on 30 Oct, above the 150bp Alert line, after peaking above 170bp on 22 Oct (Teleborsa). French GDP contracted in Q3 and street protests entered a third weekend on 31 Oct. UK 30-year gilts are near 5.7%.","for_you":"Rising government borrowing costs tend to feed into mortgage and business lending rates, and can force tax rises or spending cuts.","rubric_hit":"Failed G7 auction, emergency central-bank purchases, France–Bund > 150bp, or Italy–Bund > 250bp.","situations":["france-fiscal-stress"],"provenance":"reporting","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T23:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"Ideal Investisseur — OAT–Bund spread","url":"https://www.ideal-investisseur.fr/en/markets/oat-bund-spread.html","date":"2026-10-30"},{"title":"Borsa Italiana/Teleborsa — OAT spread over Bund above 170bp","url":"https://www.borsaitaliana.it/borsa/notizie/teleborsa/finanza/oat-spread-sul-bund-sopra-170-punti-base-spagnol-generali-am-obiettivo-in-area-180200-153_2026-10-22_TLB.html?lang=it","date":"2026-10-22"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/sovereign-debt","why":"When big governments struggle to borrow, it raises everyone's costs and can force sudden austerity or money-printing.","drivers":"Deficits, auction demand, ratings actions, political shocks, long-end yields.","rubric":{"alert":"Failed G7 auction, emergency central-bank purchases, France–Bund > 150bp, or Italy–Bund > 250bp.","watch":"G7 30-year yields at multi-decade highs, a G7 downgrade, or France–Bund 80–150bp / Italy–Bund 150–250bp.","normal":"Auctions orderly; France–Bund spread < 80bp; Italy–Bund < 150bp; no G7 downgrades this month."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","alert",null],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","alert",159]]}