# Sanctions & coercion — WATCH (stable)
id sanctions · Geopolitics · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T23:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/sanctions

Value: US blockade of Iran; Graham Act in force
Rated on: Major new packages, secondary-sanction threats on large economies, or asset-seizure moves.
Situation: US–Iran war and Gulf energy shock [us-iran-war]

US blockade of Iran and new secondary-sanction powers on Russia

Why it's at this level: The US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in force; on 31 Oct Iran set the lifting of sanctions imposed after the Islamabad memorandum and release of frozen funds as conditions in Doha talks. The Lindsey Graham Act, signed in October, expands secondary sanctions on Russia's trading partners. No new major package was announced to 1 Nov.

What this means for you: Sanctions are reshaping energy trade routes and can affect prices and supply far from the targeted countries.

Why it matters: Sanctions are now a frontline weapon; secondary sanctions and asset seizures fragment global finance and trade.
What moves it: Russia/Iran sanctions packages, secondary sanctions, frozen-asset decisions, export controls.

Rubric — Alert: Major economy cut off from payment systems, or large-scale seizure of sovereign assets. | Watch: Major new packages, secondary-sanction threats on large economies, or asset-seizure moves. | Normal: No major new sanctions packages this week.

Sources:
- Al Jazeera — Iran FM says US outreach a 'positive step' (2026-10-31) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/31/iran-fm-says-us-outreach-a-positive-step-as-delegation-in-qatar-for-talks
- Debevoise — Lindsey Graham Act expands US sanctions and tariffs (2026-10-15) https://www.debevoise.com/insights/publications/2026/10/lindsey-graham-act-expands-us-sanctions-and-tariff