# Sahel insurgency — ALERT (stable)
id sahel · Armed Conflict · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T23:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/sahel

Value: JNIM fuel blockade of Bamako
Rated on: Blockade or fall of a capital or major city, or mass-casualty attacks spreading to coastal states.

JNIM fuel blockade on Bamako persists; insurgency pressing toward Guinea

Why it's at this level: JNIM's fuel blockade of Mali's capital, imposed in September 2025 and declared total on 28 Apr 2026, was last reported in force with Bamako relying on escorted convoys; no report of it being lifted was found as of 1 Nov. Mali air strikes reportedly killed 89 civilians on 19 Oct, and JNIM is expanding toward Guinea.

What this means for you: Follow FCDO advice against all travel to most of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

Why it matters: Jihadist groups control growing territory across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, driving displacement and coastal-state spillover.
What moves it: JNIM/IS-Sahel offensives, juntas, Russian forces, blockades, coastal-state attacks.

Rubric — Alert: Blockade or fall of a capital or major city, or mass-casualty attacks spreading to coastal states. | Watch: Sustained insurgency at current levels. | Normal: Declining violence trend.

Sources:
- The OpsCon — Bamako still moves on escorted fuel convoys (2026-07-19) https://theopscon.com/intelligence/threat-level-mali-bamako-fuel-siege-convoys-2026-07-19
- Wikipedia — Mali fuel blockade (2026-11-01) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mali_fuel_blockade