{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"sahel","name":"Sahel insurgency","domain":"conflict","domain_name":"Armed Conflict","status":"alert","trend":"stable","horizon":"acute","tier":"daily","value":"JNIM fuel blockade of Bamako","value_num":null,"summary":"JNIM fuel blockade on Bamako persists; insurgency pressing toward Guinea","state":"JNIM's fuel blockade of Mali's capital, imposed in September 2025 and declared total on 28 Apr 2026, was last reported in force with Bamako relying on escorted convoys; no report of it being lifted was found as of 1 Nov. Mali air strikes reportedly killed 89 civilians on 19 Oct, and JNIM is expanding toward Guinea.","for_you":"Follow FCDO advice against all travel to most of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.","rubric_hit":"Blockade or fall of a capital or major city, or mass-casualty attacks spreading to coastal states.","situations":[],"provenance":"reporting","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T23:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"The OpsCon — Bamako still moves on escorted fuel convoys","url":"https://theopscon.com/intelligence/threat-level-mali-bamako-fuel-siege-convoys-2026-07-19","date":"2026-07-19"},{"title":"Wikipedia — Mali fuel blockade","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mali_fuel_blockade","date":"2026-11-01"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/sahel","why":"Jihadist groups control growing territory across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, driving displacement and coastal-state spillover.","drivers":"JNIM/IS-Sahel offensives, juntas, Russian forces, blockades, coastal-state attacks.","rubric":{"alert":"Blockade or fall of a capital or major city, or mass-casualty attacks spreading to coastal states.","watch":"Sustained insurgency at current levels.","normal":"Declining violence trend."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","alert",null],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","alert",null]]}