Private credit stress
Assessed by an AI model against this signal's rubric. Describes conditions; not a forecast or advice.
Pending
This signal has not been assessed yet. The next scheduled run will rate it.
Why it matters
Private credit has grown fast outside bank regulation; its losses surface late and can spill into banks, insurers and pension funds.
What moves it
Defaults among leveraged mid-sized borrowers, payment-in-kind interest, fund redemption requests, bank lending to funds.
How it's rated
Alert
Several large funds gate at once, forced asset sales, or losses spreading to banks or insurers.
Watch
A large fund limits redemptions, listed BDCs trade at wide discounts to NAV, or a cluster of borrower defaults with heavy losses.
Normal
No notable fund gates, defaults or markdowns beyond the routine.