# Political instability — NORMAL (worsening)
id political-instability · Geopolitics · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T23:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/political-instability

Value: No G20 government collapse (1 Nov)
Rated on: No G20 government collapse, contested election or coup in the past month.

No G20 government has fallen this month; France's budget fight is the one to watch

Why it's at this level: No G20 government has fallen and no coup was reported as of 1 Nov. France saw a third weekend of social protests on 31 Oct, with about 320,000 marchers by the Interior Ministry's count and 27 arrests by mid-afternoon (Euronews). The US holds midterm elections on 3 Nov.

What this means for you: Political risk is building rather than acute. A French government collapse would likely push its borrowing costs higher.

Why it matters: Coups, contested elections and constitutional crises in large economies unsettle markets, alliances and policy.
What moves it: Elections, government collapses, coups, emergency rule, mass protest movements.

Rubric — Alert: Coup or constitutional crisis in a G20 country, or deadly unrest threatening a G20 government. | Watch: Government collapse or contested election in a G20 country, or a coup anywhere. | Normal: No G20 government collapse, contested election or coup in the past month.

Sources:
- Euronews — France's third weekend of social protests (2026-10-31) https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/31/frances-third-weekend-of-social-protests-sees-lower-turnout-and-early-clashes-in-major-cit
- Khaleej Times — US midterm elections 2026 explainer (2026-10-31) https://www.khaleejtimes.com/americas/us-midterm-elections-2026-voting-explainer