{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"political-instability","name":"Political instability","domain":"geopolitics","domain_name":"Geopolitics","status":"normal","trend":"worsening","horizon":"acute","tier":"daily","value":"No G20 government collapse (1 Nov)","value_num":null,"summary":"No G20 government has fallen this month; France's budget fight is the one to watch","state":"No G20 government has fallen and no coup was reported as of 1 Nov. France saw a third weekend of social protests on 31 Oct, with about 320,000 marchers by the Interior Ministry's count and 27 arrests by mid-afternoon (Euronews). The US holds midterm elections on 3 Nov.","for_you":"Political risk is building rather than acute. A French government collapse would likely push its borrowing costs higher.","rubric_hit":"No G20 government collapse, contested election or coup in the past month.","situations":[],"provenance":"reporting","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T23:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"Euronews — France's third weekend of social protests","url":"https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/31/frances-third-weekend-of-social-protests-sees-lower-turnout-and-early-clashes-in-major-cit","date":"2026-10-31"},{"title":"Khaleej Times — US midterm elections 2026 explainer","url":"https://www.khaleejtimes.com/americas/us-midterm-elections-2026-voting-explainer","date":"2026-10-31"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/political-instability","why":"Coups, contested elections and constitutional crises in large economies unsettle markets, alliances and policy.","drivers":"Elections, government collapses, coups, emergency rule, mass protest movements.","rubric":{"alert":"Coup or constitutional crisis in a G20 country, or deadly unrest threatening a G20 government.","watch":"Government collapse or contested election in a G20 country, or a coup anywhere.","normal":"No G20 government collapse, contested election or coup in the past month."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","normal",null],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","normal",null]]}