# Oil (Brent) — ALERT (worsening)
id oil · Energy & Commodities · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T01:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/oil

Value: $113.4, 1m +11%
Rated on: Brent > $110, or 1-month change > +30%, or a major physical supply outage (> 2 mb/d).
Situation: US–Iran war and Gulf energy shock [us-iran-war]

Brent above $110 as Hormuz stays largely closed

Why it's at this level: Brent last settled at $113 on 30 Oct, above the $110 Alert line and up 11% over the month. Iran said four tankers caught fire after striking mines near Hormuz on 31 Oct, and Iran halted tanker movements the same day. In Doha talks Tehran has offered to reopen the strait within two days, on conditions the US has not accepted.

What this means for you: Expect continued high petrol, diesel and heating-oil prices, with knock-on effects on transport costs and inflation.

Why it matters: Oil feeds inflation, transport and household budgets; price spikes have preceded most post-war recessions.
What moves it: OPEC+ output, Middle East supply risk, sanctions, demand, inventories, shipping disruption.

Rubric — Alert: Brent > $110, or 1-month change > +30%, or a major physical supply outage (> 2 mb/d). | Watch: Brent $85–110, or 1-month change +15–30%. | Normal: Brent < $85 and 1-month change < +15%.

Sources:
- Yahoo Finance — Brent crude futures (2026-10-30) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BZ%3DF
- Al Jazeera — Iran FM says US outreach a 'positive step' as delegation in Qatar (2026-10-31) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/31/iran-fm-says-us-outreach-a-positive-step-as-delegation-in-qatar-for-talks
- Khaleej Times — Iran war live updates, 31 October (2026-10-31) https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/us-israel-iran-saudi-arabia-yemen-war-live-updates-october-31-2026