{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"iran-nuclear","name":"Iran nuclear programme","domain":"geopolitics","domain_name":"Geopolitics","status":"watch","trend":"worsening","horizon":"acute","tier":"fast","value":"No IAEA access","value_num":null,"summary":"No IAEA access amid war; talks focus on inspections as strike plans reported","state":"The IAEA reported Iran to the UN Security Council on 1 Oct and has no access to Iranian sites. On 31 Oct Iran's security chief said Tehran was debating whether to keep its ban on nuclear weapons, and state TV said nuclear talks could only follow US acceptance of Iran's demands. Rubio said Trump had not decided whether to resume strikes.","for_you":"Renewed strikes would likely push oil and gas prices higher again.","rubric_hit":"Enrichment at ≥ 60% or inspector access curtailed, or credible strike threats.","situations":["us-iran-war"],"provenance":"reporting","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"Al Jazeera — Iran FM says US outreach a 'positive step' as delegation in Qatar","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/31/iran-fm-says-us-outreach-a-positive-step-as-delegation-in-qatar-for-talks","date":"2026-10-31"},{"title":"Khaleej Times — Iran war live updates, 31 October","url":"https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/us-israel-iran-saudi-arabia-yemen-war-live-updates-october-31-2026","date":"2026-10-31"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/iran-nuclear","why":"A nuclear-armed Iran — or strikes to prevent one — could ignite the Gulf and send oil far higher.","drivers":"Enrichment levels, IAEA access, Israeli/US military posture, snapback sanctions, talks.","rubric":{"alert":"Strikes on nuclear sites, NPT withdrawal, or evidence of weaponisation.","watch":"Enrichment at ≥ 60% or inspector access curtailed, or credible strike threats.","normal":"IAEA access and active diplomacy; no escalation."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","watch",null],["2026-10-31T11:43:28Z","watch",null],["2026-10-31T11:44:16Z","watch",null],["2026-10-31T17:48:45Z","watch",null],["2026-10-31T23:53:37Z","watch",null],["2026-10-31T23:53:42Z","watch",null],["2026-11-01T05:43:22Z","watch",null],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","watch",null]]}