# Global temperature — ALERT (stable)
id global-temp · Climate · horizon chronic · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T23:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/global-temp

Value: +1.74°C vs pre-industrial
Rated on: > +1.6°C, or a record high for the calendar date.
Situation: Super El Niño [super-el-nino]

Global surface temperature about 1.7°C above pre-industrial

Why it's at this level: ERA5 data for 26 Oct put the global surface air temperature 0.86°C above the 1991–2020 average, roughly 1.74°C above pre-industrial levels and past the 1.6°C Alert line, though not a record for the date. Readings eased from about 1.9°C in mid-October. The strong El Niño is adding to long-term warming.

What this means for you: Higher global temperatures raise the odds of extreme heat, heavy rain and drought worldwide over the coming year.

Why it matters: Global temperature is the master climate variable; each tenth of a degree raises extreme-weather risk.
What moves it: Greenhouse gases, El Niño/La Niña, aerosols, solar cycle.

Rubric — Alert: > +1.6°C, or a record high for the calendar date. | Watch: +1.3°C to +1.6°C. | Normal: Daily global anomaly < +1.3°C above pre-industrial (ERA5 vs 1991–2020 + 0.88°C).

Sources:
- Climate Reanalyzer — Daily global surface air temperature (ERA5) (2026-10-25) https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/