# Global activity (PMI) — NORMAL (improving)
id global-pmi · Economy · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T23:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/global-pmi

Value: Sep composite: joint-highest since 2021
Rated on: J.P.Morgan Global Composite PMI > 51.

Global PMI strong in September, but October flashes and China's PMI softened

Why it's at this level: The J.P.Morgan Global Composite PMI rose in September to its joint-highest level since 2021 (published 6 Oct). October readings so far point to softer momentum: euro-area flashes slowed (23 Oct) and China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 (31 Oct). The October global figures are due 2–4 Nov.

What this means for you: Global activity has held up well so far despite the energy shock.

Why it matters: Purchasing-manager surveys are the fastest read on whether the world economy is expanding or contracting.
What moves it: Orders, inventories, trade policy, energy costs, credit conditions.

Rubric — Alert: Global composite < 49. | Watch: Global composite 49–51, or manufacturing < 49. | Normal: J.P.Morgan Global Composite PMI > 51.

Sources:
- S&P Global — Global PMI hits joint-highest since 2021 (2026-10-06) https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/10/global-pmi-hits-joint-highest-since-2021-as-economic-expansion-reaches-all-sectors
- Trading Economics — China NBS manufacturing PMI (2026-10-31) https://tradingeconomics.com/china/business-confidence