# Gilt market — WATCH (improving)
id gilts · UK Watch · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T01:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/gilts

Value: 10y 5.29% (30 Oct)
Rated on: 30y gilt at multi-decade highs, or 10y moved 40–75bp in a month, or a weak auction.

Gilt yields ease after the Budget but stay near 19-year highs

Why it's at this level: The 10-year gilt yield was 5.29% at the 30 Oct close and the 30-year 5.72%, near multi-decade highs. Yields fell to their lowest since 22 Sep after Chancellor John Healey's first Budget met the fiscal rules. Markets reopen on 2 Nov ahead of the 5 Nov Bank of England decision.

What this means for you: Fixed-rate mortgage pricing tracks gilt yields, so new fixed deals remain expensive by recent standards.

Why it matters: Gilt yields set UK mortgage rates and the government's borrowing costs; the 2022 LDI crisis showed how fast it can break.
What moves it: Fiscal credibility, BoE policy, inflation, global bond moves, pension-fund flows.

Rubric — Alert: BoE intervention, or 10y moved > 75bp in a month. | Watch: 30y gilt at multi-decade highs, or 10y moved 40–75bp in a month, or a weak auction. | Normal: 10y gilt moved < 40bp in a month and auctions orderly.

Sources:
- Trading Economics — UK 10-year gilt yield (2026-10-30) https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/government-bond-yield