Dollar funding stress
Assessed by an AI model against this signal's rubric. Describes conditions; not a forecast or advice.
Pending
This signal has not been assessed yet. The next scheduled run will rate it.
Why it matters
Overnight dollar funding is the plumbing of global finance; repo-rate spikes came before the market seizures of September 2019 and March 2020.
What moves it
Bank reserves, Treasury issuance and cash balances, quarter-end window dressing, Fed balance-sheet policy.
How it's rated
Alert
SOFR more than 25bp above IORB, or Fed repo operations above $50bn in a day, or emergency Fed liquidity facilities.
Watch
SOFR 10–25bp above IORB on any day in the past week (the top ~10% of weeks since 2024), or Fed repo operations of $15–50bn in a day.
Normal
SOFR less than 10bp above the Fed's interest on reserves (IORB) on every day of the past week, and Fed repo operations under $15bn.