# Global food prices — ALERT (worsening)
id food-prices · Energy & Commodities · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T23:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/food-prices

Value: FAO index 136.0 (Sep)
Rated on: FFPI > 135, or multiple major exporters ban exports of a staple.

FAO food index at 136, up 5.8% on a year

Why it's at this level: The FAO Food Price Index rose 1.5% in September to 136.0, 5.8% above a year earlier and above the 135 Alert line (published 8 Oct). Cereals rose 5.1% and sugar 6.1%, driven by Black Sea logistics, dry weather and Hormuz shipping uncertainty. The October figure is due in the first week of November.

What this means for you: Food inflation is likely to stay elevated. Import-dependent poorer countries are most exposed.

Why it matters: Food prices drive inflation, hunger and political unrest; poorer countries spend up to half of income on food.
What moves it: Harvests, weather, fertiliser and energy costs, export bans, conflict in breadbaskets.

Rubric — Alert: FFPI > 135, or multiple major exporters ban exports of a staple. | Watch: FFPI 120–135, or y/y > +5%, or a major exporter restricts exports. | Normal: FAO Food Price Index < 120 and y/y change < +5%.

Sources:
- MercoPress — FAO Food Price Index rises in September (2026-10-08) https://en.mercopress.com/2026/10/08/fao-food-price-index-rises-in-september-amid-weather-concerns-and-transport-disruptions
- FAO — Food Price Index () https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/