{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"equity-stress","name":"US equity stress","domain":"markets","domain_name":"Markets","status":"normal","trend":"stable","horizon":"acute","tier":"fast","value":"VIX 19.4, S&P -3.0%","value_num":19.42,"summary":"US stocks near highs and volatility contained despite the energy shock","state":"US markets were closed over the weekend; the S&P 500 last closed on 30 Oct about 3% below its 52-week high, with the VIX at 19.4, just under the 20 Watch line. The coming week brings the 3 Nov US midterms and the 5 Nov Bank of England decision.","for_you":"Conditions in US equities are calm by historical standards. Volatility near 20 means sharper daily swings are plausible if energy or rate news worsens.","rubric_hit":"VIX < 20 and S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high < 5%.","situations":[],"provenance":"metric","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"Yahoo Finance — S&P 500 (^GSPC)","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC","date":"2026-10-30"},{"title":"Yahoo Finance — VIX (^VIX)","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX","date":"2026-10-30"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/equity-stress","why":"The S&P 500 is the world's risk barometer; sharp falls and spiking volatility transmit to pensions, credit and confidence globally.","drivers":"Earnings, interest-rate expectations, liquidity, geopolitical shocks, positioning and leverage.","rubric":{"alert":"VIX > 30, or drawdown > 15%, or a market-wide circuit breaker trips.","watch":"VIX 20–30, or drawdown 5–15%.","normal":"VIX < 20 and S&P 500 drawdown from 52-week high < 5%."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","normal",19.42],["2026-10-31T11:43:28Z","normal",19.42],["2026-10-31T11:44:16Z","normal",19.42],["2026-10-31T17:48:45Z","normal",19.42],["2026-10-31T23:53:37Z","normal",19.42],["2026-10-31T23:53:42Z","normal",19.42],["2026-11-01T05:43:22Z","normal",19.42],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","normal",19.42]]}