# Emerging-market stress — PENDING
id em-stress · Economy · horizon acute · checked — · at this level since — · stale after —
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/em-stress

Not assessed yet; the next scheduled run will rate it.

Why it matters: Energy-importing and heavily indebted emerging economies crack first in oil shocks and strong-dollar periods, with knock-on defaults and unrest.
What moves it: Oil and food import bills, dollar strength, FX reserves, debt maturities, IMF programmes.

Rubric — Alert: A sovereign default or capital controls in a major emerging economy, or several in crisis at once. | Watch: A major emerging economy's currency falls more than 10% in a month, its reserves fall fast, or it seeks emergency IMF support. | Normal: No major emerging economy in acute currency or debt distress.