# Ebola & haemorrhagic fevers — ALERT (worsening)
id ebola · Global Health · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T01:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/ebola

Value: 10,274 cases (28 Oct)
Rated on: More than 1,000 cases, or spread to a new country in the past 30 days.
Situation: Ebola outbreak, DR Congo [ebola-drc]

Over 10,000 Ebola cases in DR Congo; imported cases in Kenya and Nigeria

Why it's at this level: ECDC's 30 Oct update reported 10,274 confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola cases in DR Congo and 4,992 deaths (data to 28 Oct) across eight provinces, with Ituri the worst affected. Kenya confirmed an imported case on 6 Oct and Nigeria one on 20 Oct, within the past 30 days. ECDC rates the EU/EEA risk as very low.

What this means for you: Risk to the UK public is very low. Travellers to affected areas should follow NaTHNaC and FCDO advice.

Why it matters: Ebola, Marburg and similar viruses kill a large share of those infected; outbreaks that reach cities or cross borders can overwhelm health systems.
What moves it: Surveillance and contact tracing, vaccine availability (none licensed for some strains), conflict, cross-border travel, health-worker infections.

Rubric — Alert: More than 1,000 cases, or spread to a new country in the past 30 days. | Watch: An active outbreak contained within one country, or fewer than 1,000 cases. | Normal: No active Ebola/Marburg outbreak, or outbreaks declining with no new countries affected in 60 days.

Sources:
- ECDC — Ebola disease outbreak caused by Bundibugyo virus (2026-10-30) https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/public-health-events/2026-EIP-00026
- WHO — Disease Outbreak News: Ebola, DRC, Kenya and Nigeria (2026-10-24) https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON622