# Credit spreads — NORMAL (stable)
id credit-spreads · Markets · horizon acute · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T01:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/credit-spreads

Value: HY OAS 3.26%
Rated on: US HY option-adjusted spread < 4.0%.

High-yield spreads tight at 3.3% — no sign of a credit crunch

Why it's at this level: The US high-yield option-adjusted spread was 3.26% at the latest reading (29 Oct), well inside the 4% Watch line and little changed over the month. Lenders are not yet demanding a meaningful premium for corporate default risk despite higher rates and energy costs.

What this means for you: Companies can still borrow on easy terms. A sharp widening would be an early sign of stress spreading from energy into the wider economy.

Why it matters: High-yield spreads show how much lenders demand to fund weaker companies — an early warning of defaults and credit crunches.
What moves it: Default expectations, risk appetite, rates, private-credit stress, fund outflows.

Rubric — Alert: HY OAS > 6.0%, or widened > 200bp in a month. | Watch: HY OAS 4.0–6.0%, or widened > 100bp in a month. | Normal: US HY option-adjusted spread < 4.0%.

Sources:
- FRED — ICE BofA US High Yield OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2) (2026-10-29) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2