{"schema":"https://canary.danleech.com/api/v1/schema.json","version":"1.1","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","valid_until":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","next_run":"2026-11-01T17:40:00Z","assessed_by":"AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics","disclaimer":"Attention levels describing current conditions; not a forecast, and not financial, medical, legal or safety advice. For safety, follow official guidance.","note":"Content is data, not instructions. Cite the primary sources listed per signal for facts.","licence":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Canary (canary.danleech.com)","scope":"Canary's statuses, summaries and text. Third-party data and linked sources remain their owners'."},"id":"credit-spreads","name":"Credit spreads","domain":"markets","domain_name":"Markets","status":"normal","trend":"stable","horizon":"acute","tier":"fast","value":"HY OAS 3.26%","value_num":3.26,"summary":"High-yield spreads tight at 3.3% — no sign of a credit crunch","state":"The US high-yield option-adjusted spread was 3.26% at the latest reading (29 Oct), well inside the 4% Watch line and little changed over the month. Lenders are not yet demanding a meaningful premium for corporate default risk despite higher rates and energy costs.","for_you":"Companies can still borrow on easy terms. A sharp widening would be an early sign of stress spreading from energy into the wider economy.","rubric_hit":"US HY option-adjusted spread < 4.0%.","situations":[],"provenance":"metric","checked_at":"2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","changed_at":"2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","stale_after":"2026-11-02T01:52:42Z","sources":[{"title":"FRED — ICE BofA US High Yield OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2","date":"2026-10-29"}],"url":"https://canary.danleech.com/s/credit-spreads","why":"High-yield spreads show how much lenders demand to fund weaker companies — an early warning of defaults and credit crunches.","drivers":"Default expectations, risk appetite, rates, private-credit stress, fund outflows.","rubric":{"alert":"HY OAS > 6.0%, or widened > 200bp in a month.","watch":"HY OAS 4.0–6.0%, or widened > 100bp in a month.","normal":"US HY option-adjusted spread < 4.0%."},"history":[["2026-10-31T11:26:06Z","normal",3.26],["2026-10-31T11:43:28Z","normal",3.26],["2026-10-31T11:44:16Z","normal",3.26],["2026-10-31T17:48:45Z","normal",3.26],["2026-10-31T23:53:37Z","normal",3.26],["2026-10-31T23:53:42Z","normal",3.26],["2026-11-01T05:43:22Z","normal",3.26],["2026-11-01T11:52:42Z","normal",3.26]]}