# Coral bleaching — NORMAL (worsening)
id coral-bleaching · Climate · horizon chronic · checked 2026-11-01T11:52Z · at this level since 2026-10-31T11:26Z · stale after 2026-11-02T23:52Z
Assessed by an AI model (Anthropic Claude) against published rubrics; not a forecast or advice · CC BY 4.0 · https://canary.danleech.com/s/coral-bleaching

Value: No global event since June
Rated on: No global bleaching event in progress.

Fourth global bleaching event ended in June; El Niño threatens a fifth

Why it's at this level: NOAA confirmed in June 2026 that the fourth global coral bleaching event had ended. Reef agencies in the Seychelles and Caribbean have warned that the strong El Niño could trigger new bleaching as Southern Hemisphere waters warm; no new regional mass bleaching was confirmed as of 1 Nov.

What this means for you: Reef-dependent fisheries and tourism face renewed risk over the coming southern summer.

Why it matters: Reefs support a quarter of marine species and coastal economies; mass bleaching is a direct sign of ocean heat stress.
What moves it: Marine heatwaves, El Niño, warming trend.

Rubric — Alert: Bleaching extent at record levels with active new alerts in the past month. | Watch: Global bleaching event in progress, or regional mass bleaching. | Normal: No global bleaching event in progress.

Sources:
- GCRMN — Fourth global bleaching event ended (2026-06-08) https://gcrmn.net/2026/06/08/4gbe-ended/
- Nature Seychelles — What a strong El Niño warning means for coral reefs (2026-10-01) https://natureseychelles.org/news/latest-news/watchful-waiting-what-a-strong-el-nino-warning-means-for-coral-reefs-in-seychelles/